Thursday, April 19, 9:25 a.m.
Global markets have been spooked in recent weeks by the return of the euro-zone crisis.
From Italy came a warning that it won’t be able to balance its budget by 2013 as it had pledged. From Greece came a warning that it will likely further delay decisions on how it will meet the terms of its bailout, to recapitalize its banks, until after the May 6 elections. From Spain came the report that bank loans more than three months overdue jumped in February to the highest level in 17 years.
This morning’s widely anticipated bond auction in Spain saw strong demand for Spanish bonds. The worrisome part was that Spain’s borrowing costs rose significantly, the yield on 10-year bonds rising to 5.74% from the 5.40% yield at the last 10-year auction in January. And yields in the secondary market rose to 5.87% after the auction.
Also this morning there are rumors that France’s debt rating may soon be downgraded. The reaction has France’s government bonds selling off sharply, even though analysts are saying a downgrade is unlikely, at least prior to French presidential elections on Sunday, and the run-off vote expected to be needed on May 6.
European markets were spooked again by this morning’s reports and rumors, giving up their earlier gains.
Weekly unemployment claims a disappointment but not a shock.
In Tuesday’s post I said that today’s weekly unemployment claims report was likely to be the most important report of the week, after the shock of only 120,000 new jobs being created in March, versus the forecast of 240,000, and then last week’s big jump of 20,000 new unemployment claims, indicating the March report might not have been the hoped for one-time aberration, that the jobs softness was continuing in April.
But this morning’s report was that new weekly Unemployment Claims fell by 2,000 last week to 386,000. However, that was only because the previous week’s claims were revised up by 8,000 to an an even worse 388,000 from the original number of 380,000. The more important 4-week m.a. of claims rose by 5,500 to 374,750.
To read my weekend newspaper column ‘More Impetus For A Summer Correction!’ Click here.
Subscribers to Street Smart Report:There is an in-depth ‘U.S. Market Signals and Recommendations’ report from yesterday, an in-depth ‘Global Markets’ update from Tuesday, and an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ report from Monday, in the subscribers’ area of the Street Smart Report website.
Yesterday in the U.S. Market.
A down day. The Dow closed down 82 points, on its low for the day, at 13,031, but managing to hold above 13,000.
The Dow closed down 82 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.4%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.4%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.3%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.9%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.1%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.2%.
Gold closed down $ 10 an ounce at $ 1,640 an ounce.
Oil closed down $ 1.52 a barrel at $ 102.68 a barrel.
The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed unchanged.
The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed up 0.3%.
Yesterday in European Markets.
European markets also closed down yesterday. London closed down 0.4%. Germany closed down 1.1%. France closed down 1.6%.
Asian Markets Were Mixed & Mostly Flat Last Night.
Australia closed up 0.1%. China closed down 0.1%. Hong Kong closed up 1.1%. India closed up 0.6%. Indonesia closed down 0.1%. Japan closed down 0.8%. Malaysia closed up 0.1%. New Zealand closed down 0.2%. South Korea closed down 0.2%. Singapore closed up 0.2%. Taiwan closed up 0.2%.
Subscribers Premium Content Area.
For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.
To obtain access please click on the ‘Subscribe’ link. It will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report, a subscription to which includes access to the premium content area of this Street Smart Post blog.
Markets This Morning:
European markets have given are up earlier gains this morning on more eurozone worries. The London FTSE is up 0.4%. Germany’s DAX is down 0.2%. France’s CAC is down 0.8%
Oil is down $ .10 a barrel at $ 102.65.
Gold is up $ 1 an ounce at $ 1,641.
This Morning in the U.S. Market:
This week is a quite heavy week for potential market-moving economic reports, including Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, Industrial Production, etc. To see the full list and times for each release click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.
Monday’s reports were that Retail Sales were up 0.8% in March, much better than the consensus forecast of an increase of 0.4%. But the Empire State (NY) Business Index fell sharply, from a reading of 20.2 in March to only 6.6 in April. And the Housing Market Index, which measures the optimism of home-builders, declined for the first time in 7 months, dropping from 28 in March to 25 in April (on a scale of 1-100). The sub-index measuring sales expectations for the next 6 months fell 3 points, while measurements of prospective buyer traffic fell 4 points. (The index hasn’t been at a positive level of 50 or above since 2006).
Tuesday’s reports were that New Housing Starts fell an unexpected 5.8% in March,compared to the consensus forecast of a gain of 1.3%. The disappointing number probably should not be a surprise given the decline in home-builder optimism in March reported yesterday by the Housing Market Index. Permits for future construction rose 4.5% in March. But those numbers have not meant much lately, since they rose sharply in February yet this morning’s report of new starts was another disappointment. And Industrial Production remained flat in March for the 2nd straight month, versus the consensus forecast that it would be up 0.3%.
There were no reports yesterday.
This morning report was that new weekly Unemployment Claims fell by 2,000 last week to 386,000, but only because the previous week’s was revised up by 8,000 to 388,000 from the original number of 380,000. The more important 4-week m.a. of claims rose by 5,500 to 374,750.
Still to come are Existing Home Sales, The Phila Fed’s Mfg. Index, and Leading Economic Indicators, all of which will be released at 10 a.m.
The market didn’t like the number, with pre-open indicators giving back their earlier positive look.
Our Pre-Open Indicators:
Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 20 points or so in the early going, meaningless as to direction.
To read my weekend newspaper column ‘More Impetus For A Summer Correction!’ Click here.
Subscribers to Street Smart Report:There is an in-depth ‘U.S. Market Signals and Recommendations’ report from yesterday, an in-depth ‘Global Markets’ update from Tuesday, and an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ report from Monday, in the subscribers’ area of the Street Smart Report website.
I’ll be back with the next regular blog post on Saturday morning, as usual later than the weekday posts, probably around 11:00 a.m.
Non-subscribers: We believe we can help you not only make more profits, but just as importantly avoid losses, and at very reasonable cost!
Our portfolios were up an average of 9.4% last year, our Seasonal Timing Strategy up 15.8%, in a flat year (S&P 500 unchanged for year) when many, if not most, managers and funds were down for the year. We were on Hulbert’s Ten Best Newsletters of the Year list for the 2nd time in 4 years, and #4 Long-Term Market-Timer in Timer Digest’s rankings. And we are off to an even better start this year, now ranked #1 Long-Term Market Timer so far in 2012.
Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds, two portfolios of recommended holdings (one modified buy and hold, and one market-timing). Street Smart Report Online provides an 8-page newsletter every 3 weeks, an in-depth 6 page interim update every Wednesday on our intermediate-term signals and recommended holdings, an in-depth 4-page ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar’ update every 2 weeks, and special reports and hotline updates as needed. Highly regarded and in our 24th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.
This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!
**** End of Today’s post*****
